Predictions on Refrigerant Pricing for 2015
With November upon us 2014 is coming to a close, we’ll be in 2015 in just a few short weeks. So, the question is what will Refrigerant pricing do in 2015? What price is going to sky rocket, take a dive, or remain flat? Well, truth be told, it’s hard to predict because you never know if we’re going to have a crazy hot summer or if there are new EPA regulations that come out of nowhere. The below article is my PREDICTION on what pricing will be, but I warn you to take it with a grain of salt.
R-22 is the one to watch in 2015. It is already on it’s way out due to Environmental Protection Agency restrictions that firs took effect in 2010. But, the next phase of the phaseout begins in 2015. To understand the phaseout you really need to know what happened in 2010. The main gist of it is that no new manufactured machines from 2010 and on can take R-22 Refrigerant. All new machines need to take the replacement for R-22 which is R-410A.
2015 is the next step in the phaseout, the goal for 2015 is to cut production and imports of R-22 Refrigerant into the United States by half. So, the supply of this particular type of Refrigerant is going to be cut in half next year. Now, you can imagine what this will do to the market. Today, R-22 is averaging about $275-$350 for a thirty pound cylinder. Next year I would predict that this would go up to around $500 a cylinder, perhaps even higher. If I had the capital on hand today I would at-least buy a pallet of R-22 and sit on it for about six months and watch the price creep up. If you buy today for $300 and sell for $600 next summer you stand to make $300 a jug times a forty jug pallet equals out to $12,000 in net profit.
R-410A is a different story compared to R-22. R-410A, or Puron, is still fairly new to the market and thus the price has remained relatively stable. R-410A has been hovering around $85-$110 per individual jug and about $60-$70 per pallet. I have more experience on R-410A as I sold about $40,000 of it in 2013. Since it is not widely used pricing really doesn’t seem to change and for the most part it is at the same level as it was in 2013. For 2015 I predict right about the same price range give or take $5.00 or so.
R-134A is a tricky one this year and next. In 2014 the United States Government went after importers of R-134A Refrigerant. The main reason that I can understand is that there was a concern that the R-134A imported refrigerant was not up to par/EPA standards on HFC Refrigerant. So, the EPA/Government issued a large tariff on all R-134A imported into the United States. This caused the prices of R-134A to surge in the beginning of 2014. At one point I was buying at $65.00 a thirty pound cylinder and within a week we were at $130.00 a cylinder and I was buying directly from DuPont. Over the next few months the fever on R-134A seemed to die down a bit and pricing started to recede. It is still nothing like what it was earlier this year, today I’m buying at around $100-$115 a cylinder and that’s considered a good deal. 2015 is extremely difficult to predict on R-134A as it’s tough to figure out what the new government policy will be. In October the Obama administration ‘Voluntary’ restrictions on R-134A. This is the only the beginning for R-134A so I can only say that the price will be going up but to what it is anyone’s guess.
R-404A is a pretty quiet Refrigerant at this time. I have been watching this over the past year and really haven’t see much change occur. Today, you can buy it individually for about $90.00 a jug and I really haven’t seen it go much up or down from this price. In 2015 I don’t see much changing and predict it to be right around the $90-$100 price.
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